Mexico's economy grew 0.9% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the second, according to the timely GDP estimate INEGI published on 30 October 2026. Against the same quarter of 2025, it grew 3.2%, seasonally adjusted, the fastest annual pace since the third quarter of 2023.
GDP, change on the previous quarter
Seasonally adjusted, percent, first quarter 2025 to third quarter 2026 (third quarter: timely estimate)
The quarter followed a 1.4% rise in the second quarter and a 0.3% fall in the first. From January to September 2026, the economy was 1.9% larger than in the same months of 2025, or 1.8% in the original, unadjusted series.
What grew
Services, the largest part of the economy, rose 1.1% on the quarter and 3.3% on the year. Industry, which includes manufacturing, construction, mining and utilities, rose 0.8% on the quarter and 3.1% on the year. Agriculture, livestock, fishing and forestry fell 0.4% on the quarter but stood 1.8% above a year earlier.
The industrial figure marks a change from earlier in the year. In the first half of 2026, industry was no larger than a year before in the unadjusted figures INEGI published in August. By the third quarter, seasonally adjusted, it was growing at nearly the same pace as services.
A low base
The figures suggest part of the annual jump is an arithmetic effect. In the third quarter of 2025, the economy was 0.2% smaller than a year earlier, seasonally adjusted. Measured from the third quarter of 2024, output grew about 3.0% over two years, or about 1.5% a year, a more modest pace than the 3.2% headline suggests. Those two-year figures are our arithmetic.
The path from quarter to quarter has also been uneven. Over the last seven quarters, gains of 0.8% to 1.4% have been interspersed with quarters of no growth or a slight decline, as the chart shows.
The timely estimate is built using econometric models based on data available 30 days after a quarter ends, and it covers only the total and the three large activity groups. INEGI replaces it with the full third-quarter GDP figures, with the detailed breakdown by activity, on 23 November 2026. The next timely estimate, for the fourth quarter, is due on 29 January 2027.
Sources
- INEGI, Estimación Oportuna del PIB Trimestral, third quarter of 2026 (bulletin 673/26), 30 October 2026
- INEGI, timely GDP estimate page with the quarterly series, 30 October 2026
- INEGI, PIB Trimestral, second quarter of 2026 (bulletin 500/26), 24 August 2026
- Wikipedia, Economy of Mexico (context), 30 October 2026
Figures checked at their original sources on 30 October 2026. See an error? Corrections.