Consumer prices in Mexico rose 0.41% in the first half of October 2026 and 3.62% over twelve months, INEGI reported on 22 October 2026. A year earlier, the annual rate was 3.63%, so the headline barely moved.
Annual inflation, first half of October
Percent change over twelve months, 2025 and 2026
Underneath, the two halves of the index traded places. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce, energy, and government-set tariffs and which Banxico follows closely in its statements, fell from 4.24% to 3.78%. Non-core inflation, the volatile part, nearly doubled, from 1.58% to 3.08%.
Why electricity jumped
Electricity drove the largest single push in the fortnight, rising 18.51% and adding 0.215 percentage points to the fortnightly change. It recurs every autumn because, in cities with hot summers, households pay a subsidized electricity tariff during the warm months; when the summer tariff ends, INEGI records the higher one. In the first half of October 2026, it ended in 18 cities.
Energy and government-set tariffs together rose 4.02% year on year, up from 1.99% a year earlier. Farm prices rose 1.90%, up from 1.06%.
Goods cooler, services slower to move
Inside core inflation, goods prices rose 3.28% a year, down from 4.06%, while services rose 4.26%, only a little below 4.42% a year earlier. Services are where wages show up in prices most directly, which is one reason they tend to come down slowly.
Looking back two years, in the first half of October 2024, headline inflation stood at 4.69%.
Banxico's next decision
Banxico has held its overnight interbank rate target at 6.50% since May 2026, after cutting it from 10.00% at the start of 2025. In its September 2026 statement, it forecast that headline inflation would reach its 3% target only in the fourth quarter of 2027. Its next decision is due on 5 November 2026.
The two readings point in different directions: core inflation is easing, which a central bank looks for before cutting rates, while the headline is held up by energy and farm prices the bank cannot control.
INEGI publishes the second half of October and the full-month figure on 9 November 2026.
Sources
- INEGI, Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor, first half of October 2026 (bulletin 633/26), 22 October 2026
- Banco de México, monetary policy announcement, 24 September 2026
- Wikipedia, Bank of Mexico (context), 27 October 2026
Figures checked at their original sources on 28 October 2026. See an error? Corrections.